Poker timing systems have been around for a long time now for people to use to help them win their poker games. The question is, is it really the best way to do so?
Timing systems are used, for example, by many pros to help them make better decisions when their hands are not the best. However, people can’t seem to be able to use them to the same degree that pros are able to use them.
The reason for this is because of the fact that a pro poker player is able to analyze and factor almost every hand they see into their decision. To a novice, even the best of the poker timing systems can be quite overwhelming and mathematically quite difficult to work out and deal with.
Even when a pro does decide to use one, the limitations can’t always be overcome and the wrong decision can still cost the player.
But, there is one crucial thing that a pro poker player knows that a novice doesn’t, and it could be the single most important thing that stops them from ever going on to win a tournament again.
That is, they know that the only way to win a poker tournament is to outplay your opponents on a constant basis. And it doesn’t matter how good or how bad your poker timing system is, when you are playing against people who aren’t doing it as well as you, then you are in trouble.
If you can’t improve your poker timing systems then, you are definitely king of the losers. We are not saying that you shouldn’t be using them (they are a great way to improve your game) but if you are using them to beat your opponents then, you are going to need to take a big Ivy League education because the real game is about people, and although the poker programs are about making money, they are certainly not designed to win, and mostly I agree with that, they are actually designed to help you to win more often.
So, although timing systems are great ways to improve your game, you still need to understand your game and what really is going on. You still need to know who you should call, and when you should fold.
But, there is one caveat, and that caveat is in relation to another poker concept. Spotting trends and recurring hand percentages.
The majority of the rules of any tournament or cash game cannot be applied to a live game because they are not applied to a real game of poker. When a player is able to recall the statistics of his hand, he knows whether hand is a premium hand, or a money hand, or a hand that should be folded. But, a question of course, what does a hand’s value really have, is it really the highest hand any more.
A hand that 52.5% of the time is beaten on the river by a hand that 47.5% of the time is beaten is a hand that is subject to the variance of the game. The percentage can only be guessed at; it can never be confirmed. The poor players are subject to the least amount of variance, the most likely to get the short odds and the most likely to call you. They know a high percentage no hand is no hand particularly, as they are certain that the river card will have a better kicker. They are particularly likely to call you when you have a hand that contains just one ace, a low or high card, two pairs, or a draw in the hole.
So, the absolute worst hand is ace king, and even the absolute greatest hand, pocket queens, is only a 55% win rate. Now you can apply this to online poker, if you wish, but I am not going to dwell on that chapter and bet you will not be convinced. Suffice to say, the numbers will not lie to you. The biased handheld lottery type of Owston and Johnson found in the WSOP main event last year really helped conspiracy the composition of the field, andStanford developed a stupendous amount of biases against certain hands, and algorithms were developed that favored stronger hands in certain positions. (on single table tournaments).
I might be seeing bias and using it to say Phil Laak was wrong when he said his Twin absolutely dominated heads-up play; I’m not so sure Phil Laak is living in a larger network of lies. But, I do think Phil Laak probably has more sense than to say the words Law of the Big Numbers.
Oh, and, don’t forget about Phil Gordon. He too is a defied figure, but I would not discount his excellent analysis of playable hands and his usually incisive blog.
Well, that’s it for this article. Download your ebook at my web page and start counting your wins.